How does Justin Jefferson perform on turf vs grass?
Justin Jefferson Statistics
Justin Jefferson shows strong production on both turf and grass in the 2025 season splits, with higher per-game yards and receptions on grass but a much smaller sample size on that surface.
2025 Season — Surface Splits
| Stat Category | Grass | Turf |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 3 | 14 |
| Receptions | 18 | 66 |
| Targets | 24 | 117 |
| Receiving Yards | 218 | 830 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Yards/Reception | 12.1 | 12.6 |
| Receptions/Game | 6.0 | 4.7 |
| Targets/Game | 8.0 | 8.4 |
| Yards/Game | 72.7 | 59.3 |
| TDs/Game | 0.33 | 0.07 |
Analysis
- Usage: Targets per game are nearly identical (8.0 on grass vs 8.4 on turf), so volume is consistent across surfaces.
- Efficiency: Yards per reception are very similar (12.1 grass vs 12.6 turf), indicating comparable efficiency on either surface.
- Production: Higher receptions/game and yards/game on grass (6.0 and 72.7) are driven by the small grass sample (3 games), not a clear systematic advantage.
- Scoring: Touchdown totals are identical (1 each), so TD opportunity hasn't differed meaningfully by surface this sample.
- Sample size caveat: The grass sample is small (3 games), so differences could be driven by matchups, game script, or random variance rather than surface effect.
Key Takeaway
- Jefferson is effective on both surfaces — his per-target efficiency is nearly identical, and target volume is stable. The higher per-game numbers on grass in 2025 look promising but are based on too small a sample to treat surface as a major factor.
- Recommendation: Use matchup, target share, and game script first for start/sit or prop decisions; surface (turf vs grass) should be a secondary consideration given Jefferson’s similar efficiency across both.