I have $25.. which bets are most under priced or have a line you disagree with ?
I’d treat this as small-stake, high-variance MLB props, not a lock card. With $25, I’d rather concentrate on the cleanest line disagreements than spray the board.
Best underpriced / disagree lines I see
| Priority | Play/lean | Line | Model proj. | Edge vs line | Confidence | Why I’d consider it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani UNDER strikeouts vs Padres | 7.5 | 4.5 | -3.02 | 0.683 | Biggest line disagreement by far. Model only projects ~3.7 IP / 57 pitches, so 7.5 Ks looks too high if workload is capped. Risk flags: pitch-count risk, recent-form gap. |
| 2 | Cam Schlittler OVER strikeouts vs Blue Jays | 5.5 | 6.5 | +1.02 | 0.848 | Strong projection edge, projected ~6.1 IP / 92 pitches. Only concern: Toronto contact risk. |
| 3 | Tanner Bibee UNDER strikeouts vs Tigers | 5.5 | 4.7 | -0.85 | 0.863 | Clean under edge with no listed risk flags. Projected workload is only ~5.3 IP. |
| 4 | Kyle Harrison OVER strikeouts vs Cubs | 5.5 | 6.2 | +0.70 | 0.817 | Solid K projection edge, confirmed opposing lineup, no listed risk flags. |
| 5 | Michael McGreevy OVER strikeouts vs Pirates | 3.5 | 4.2 | +0.65 | 0.837 | Lower line, decent model gap, confirmed lineup, no listed risk flags. |
| 6 | Michael Wacha OVER strikeouts vs Red Sox | 4.5 | 5.1 | +0.61 | 0.843 | Projects for ~6.5 IP and no major risk flags. |
If I had to allocate $25 conservatively
| Amount | Bet/lean |
|---|---|
| $8 | Ohtani UNDER 7.5 Ks |
| $6 | Cam Schlittler OVER 5.5 Ks |
| $5 | Tanner Bibee UNDER 5.5 Ks |
| $3 | Kyle Harrison OVER 5.5 Ks |
| $3 | Michael McGreevy OVER 3.5 Ks |
My strongest disagreement
Ohtani under 7.5 Ks is the clearest “line looks wrong” spot because the model is not questioning his strikeout talent — it’s questioning the workload. A 7.5 line needs real innings volume, while the projection is only 11.2 outs / 56.6 pitches.
One I’d avoid despite edge
Randy Vasquez OVER 3.5 Ks also shows a big edge — projected 4.7 vs 3.5 — but it has a lineup-unconfirmed risk flag, so I’d rank it below the cleaner spots unless you get confirmed Dodgers lineup context.