Summary

Matthew Stafford has been productive in cold-weather games (temperature ≤ 40°F) across his career. Over 10 recorded cold games, he averages 269 passing yards/game, 1.7 passing TDs/game, a 64% completion rate, and a 98.6 passer rating.

Weather Context

• Average temperature: 33°F (range 21–38°F)
• Typical conditions: Partly Cloudy, Mostly Clear, Cloudy, Chance of Rain
• Notable wind: several games with winds in the 10–14 mph range (can affect deep passing)

Key Cold-Game Statistics (career)

• Games played: 10
• Record: 5-5
• Passing totals: 213 completions on 333 attempts for 2,690 yards, 17 TDs, 6 INTs
• Passing averages:
  • Completions/Game: 21.3
  • Attempts/Game: 33.3
  • Yards/Game: 269
  • TDs/Game: 1.7
  • INTs/Game: 0.6
  • Completion %: 64%
  • Passer rating: 98.6
• Rushing (small sample): 18 attempts for 21 yards (≈2.3 yards/game)

Game Log (Cold Games) — Selected lines

• Dec 22, 2024 — @ NYJ, 34°F: 110 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 83.2 rating (LAR 19-9)
• Nov 29, 2021 — @ GB, 21°F: 302 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 96.6 rating (LAR 28-36)
• Dec 6, 2020 — @ CHI, 35°F: 402 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 109.4 rating (DET 34-30)
• Oct 15, 2019 — @ GB, 38°F: 265 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INT, 83.5 rating (DET 22-23)
• Dec 30, 2018 — @ GB, 27°F: 266 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INT, 109.6 rating (DET 31-?)
• (Additional cold-game lines include performances vs BUF, CHI, CIN, multiple seasons)

Analysis

• Consistent Production: Stafford's 269 yards/game and 98.6 rating show he remains an effective passer in cold conditions rather than collapsing; several of his best single-game passing lines (300+ yards) came in cold environments.
• Turnover Control: 0.6 INTs/game is moderate; he has had a few games with multiple INTs but overall keeps turnovers fairly contained in cold games.
• Environment Impact: Wind and precipitation in a subset of these games modestly affected deep-pass success (lower completion in certain windy/rainy games), but completion percentage remains solid at 64%.
• Sample Size: Analysis is based on 10 games across different teams and seasons, so trends are informative but not definitive for any single matchup.

Recommendation / Key Takeaway

• Matthew Stafford performs well enough in cold weather to be trusted as a starting QB for fantasy or game expectations. Expect near-season-average passing production: roughly 260–280 passing yards and ~1–2 TDs in cold games.
• If you need a single short rule: Start with confidence — Stafford's track record in ≤40°F games is solid (269 yds/game, 98.6 rating) and not a strong downgrade indicator.

If you want, I can:

1. Show a game-by-game chart of his cold-game passing yards, or
2. Compare his cold-weather splits to other QBs (requires specifying which QBs).

Summary

Matthew Stafford — below is a comparison (and graph) of his passer rating, completion percentage, and win percentage in games ≤ 40°F versus ≥ 41°F. I interpret "passing percentage" as passer rating (a standard QB efficiency metric) for this chart.

Key note

• Cold (≤ 40°F): 10 games (Wins 5, Losses 5)
• Warm (≥ 41°F): 31 games (Wins 16, Losses 14)
• Values shown are taken from game-level weather-filtered aggregates.

Comparison Table

Explanation before the chart

• "Passer Rating" shown as the raw rating number (higher = better).
• "Completion %" is completions divided by attempts (percentage).
• "Win %" = wins / games played (percentage).
• Colors in the chart: passer rating (violet), completion % (indigo), win % (purple).

Analysis

• Passer Rating: Higher in cold games — 98.6 (cold) vs 91.8 (warm). This suggests Stafford's efficiency in cold-weather games is at least as good, and slightly better, than in warmer conditions.
• Completion %: Nearly identical — 64.0% (cold) vs 63.9% (warm). Cold weather did not meaningfully reduce his completion rate in this sample.
• Win %: Very similar — 50.0% (cold) vs 51.6% (warm). Team results are effectively unchanged across temperature splits.
• Sample size caveat: Cold sample = 10 games, warm sample = 31 games. Small cold-sample means individual outlier games can influence averages.

Conclusion / Recommendation

• No evidence of a meaningful cold-weather drop-off for Matthew Stafford. He posts similar completion rates and slightly better passer rating in ≤ 40°F games.
• For fantasy or start/sit decisions, treat Stafford as no-weather-penalty in cold games — expect roughly mid-90s to 100 passer rating range and ~64% completion unless other matchup factors (opponent pass defense, wind, precipitation) suggest otherwise.

If you want, I can now:

1. Add a game-by-game line chart of each metric across all cold and warm games, or
2. Break these splits down further by wind / precipitation (e.g., cold & windy vs cold & calm). Which would you like?