1) Polymarket odds at your entry ($0.48) vs. how they moved

You asked for odds history for Jazz (home) vs Trail Blazers (away) on 2026-02-12. The data I pulled is win-probability odds for the game winner (moneyline-style), not the O/U market. So it can show game-state/market volatility, but it can’t directly validate whether Over 236.5 at $0.48 was “cheap” or “expensive” versus the O/U market at that exact time.

What it does show:

• Tip-off (Feb 13, 2:00 AM UTC): Trail Blazers ~68%, Jazz ~33%
• In-game: Blazers’ win chances spiked as high as ~98–100% late
• Final: Blazers won 135–119

Here’s the movement (winner market) as a visual:

Key point for your trade: the game ended 254 total points, which is Over 236.5 by +17.5. So the bet thesis (high-scoring environment) was correct.

2) Entry assessment: was $0.48 a good entry? What should you have factored in?

Was $0.48 good?

• $0.48 implies ~48% probability for the Over (ignoring fees/spread).
• For a line as high as 236.5, getting <50% pricing can be good if you had reason to believe the game environment was more like 50–55%+ to go Over (pace, defense, injuries creating bad defense, etc.).
• Since the game landed 254, your result was excellent—but evaluating “smart entry” is about whether you routinely beat the true odds, not just one outcome.

What information was publicly available that mattered most (and you should always check)

Even without having the pre-tip O/U price history here, the public inputs that most affect totals were:

A) Team scoring environment (season-long)

• Jazz games were extremely high-scoring by profile (see below: 117.8 scored / 125.7 allowed).

B) Injury news (can cut both ways for totals)

• Key creators out can reduce offense.
• But missing bigs/defenders can increase opponent efficiency and pace (transition, rim pressure, fewer stoppages).

C) Market total movement

• If 236.5 had been bet up from something like 231–233, then buying Over late at $0.48 could mean you’re paying for steam.
• If it had been bet down (e.g., 239 → 236.5) and you bought Over, you might have been getting a better number.

Your biggest missing input (for evaluating entry): the O/U market price history from Polymarket at 9:18 PM. The odds history tool you specified returned winner odds only, so we can’t verify whether $0.48 was above/below the prevailing O/U price at that minute.

3) Team records & scoring profiles (context for “Over”)

Trail Blazers (current-season snapshot)

Jazz (current-season snapshot)

Total-friendly signal: Jazz games are the big flag: 117.8 + 125.7 = 243.5 combined scored/allowed environment. That alone is a strong structural argument for Overs in Jazz games.

4) Injury reports (key absences / volatility)

Important: the injury feeds I pulled are current lists and include many entries that are not necessarily active for Feb 12. But there are Feb 12-dated items inside them that indicate what was on the board around your game date.

Trail Blazers notable Feb 12 items shown

• Shaedon Sharpe — Day-to-Day (calf strain) (dated 2026-02-12)
• Deni Avdija — Day-to-Day (back) (dated 2026-02-12)
• Robert Williams — Day-to-Day (knee management) (dated 2026-02-12)
• Scoot Henderson — Day-to-Day (hamstring management) (dated 2026-02-07)

Jazz notable Feb 12 items shown

• Lauri Markkanen — Day-to-Day (rest) (dated 2026-02-12)
• Keyonte George — Day-to-Day (ankle sprain) (dated 2026-02-12)
• Jusuf Nurkic — Day-to-Day (nose/rest) (dated 2026-02-12)
• Jaren Jackson Jr. — Day-to-Day (knee) (dated 2026-02-12)

How injuries should have affected your Over decision at the time

• If you expected stars/primary handlers to sit, that’s usually Under pressure.
• If you expected rim protection/defensive anchors to be limited, that’s often Over pressure.
• The Jazz’s season-long “allow 125.7” profile suggests that even with some offensive uncertainty, their defensive baseline was so poor that games could still fly Over.

5) What you were betting on — case FOR vs AGAINST the Over (with concrete data)

The case FOR Over 236.5

1. Jazz defensive environment was extreme
   • 125.7 points allowed per game is a huge driver of Overs.
2. Jazz offense also contributed
   • 117.8 PPG means their games aren’t just opponent-driven; they add scoring too.
3. Two weak defenses can create “blowout overs”
   • Blowouts don’t always kill Overs—sometimes they increase pace/transition and efficiency, especially versus bad defenses.
4. Result validated the environment
   • Final: 135–119 (254), comfortably Over.

Strongest argument you were right: the Jazz’s profile (high scoring + historically bad defense this season) made 236.5 a reachable number even if one side underperformed slightly.

The case AGAINST Over 236.5

1. Injury uncertainty can quietly nuke offensive efficiency
   • If key scorers/creators sit (Sharpe/Scoot types), you can lose 8–20 points of offensive output fast.
2. Rest/late scratches are particularly dangerous for totals
   • Your injury list includes several “rest”/DTD-type tags for Utah players dated Feb 12.
3. Market already knew it was a Jazz Over environment
   • A 236.5 total suggests the market was already pricing in a fast/high-scoring game. Your edge would need to come from mispriced injury news, pace mismatch, or situational spot.

Biggest risk you might be ignoring: late injury confirmation (or unexpectedly slow rotation/pace) that turns a game into “good shots but fewer possessions.” With a number like 236.5, you need both efficiency and enough possessions.

6) The game already happened — what you got right/wrong and what you should have seen

Outcome

• Final score: Trail Blazers 135, Jazz 119
• Total points: 254
• Your Over 236.5 cleared by +17.5

What you got right

• You correctly identified a high-scoring environment, consistent with Utah’s season profile (117.8 scored / 125.7 allowed).
• The game script didn’t kill scoring; it accelerated it.

What you should have checked (process improvement even on a win)

• O/U price/line movement into tip (was 236.5 rising or falling?)
• Confirmed active lineup news close to lock, because your listed injuries show multiple players with Feb 12 tags on both teams.
• Whether the game had any pace catalysts (e.g., both teams top-heavy in transition attempts recently) — not in the data we pulled here, but it’s the next “edge layer.”

Trade summary (numbers)

• Position: 8333 shares Over 236.5 @ $0.48
• Cost basis: $3,999.84
• Since the game went Over, this was a correct bet on the outcome.

I’ve tracked your $3,999.84 bet on Over 236.5 (Trail Blazers vs Jazz, 2026-02-12).