What has the spread been in Magic games without Franz Wagner, and how hav they covered against the spread in those games?
Magic Without Franz Wagner: Spread + ATS Results
In 47 completed Magic games without Franz Wagner, there were 40 games with a usable pregame spread.
Summary
| Split | Result |
|---|---|
| Straight-up record without Franz | 24-23 |
| ATS record without Franz | 18-22-0 |
| ATS cover rate | 45.0% |
| Average spread | Magic -1.0 |
| Average margin vs spread | -1.63 points |
| Biggest favorite spot | Magic -15.5 |
| Biggest underdog spot | Magic +10.5 |
Bottom line: Orlando has been roughly a coin-flip team straight up without Franz, but below breakeven ATS. The market has still priced them as a slight average favorite, and they’ve come in 1.6 points worse than the spread on average.
Favorite vs Underdog Split
| Role Without Franz | ATS Record | Cover Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Magic as favorite | 7-12 | 36.8% |
| Magic as underdog | 11-10 | 52.4% |
| Overall | 18-22 | 45.0% |
The key takeaway is that Orlando has been much better ATS when catching points than when laying them without Franz.
Game-by-Game ATS Log Without Franz
| Date | Matchup | Final | Magic Spread | ATS Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-27 | vs Nuggets | W 127-126 | +3.5 | Cover |
| 2025-12-29 | at Raptors | L 106-107 | -1.5 | No cover |
| 2025-12-31 | at Pacers | W 112-110 | -4.5 | No cover |
| 2026-01-02 | at Bulls | L 114-121 | -4.5 | No cover |
| 2026-01-04 | vs Pacers | W 135-127 | -6.5 | Cover |
| 2026-01-06 | at Wizards | L 112-120 | -7.5 | No cover |
| 2026-01-07 | at Nets | W 104-103 | -1.5 | No cover |
| 2026-01-09 | vs 76ers | L 91-103 | +3.5 | No cover |
| 2026-01-11 | vs Pelicans | W 128-118 | -6.5 | Cover |
| 2026-01-22 | vs Hornets | L 97-124 | -3.5 | No cover |
| 2026-01-24 | vs Cavaliers | L 105-119 | -2.5 | No cover |
| 2026-01-26 | at Cavaliers | L 98-114 | +4.5 | No cover |
| 2026-01-28 | at Heat | W 133-124 | +2.5 | Cover |
| 2026-01-30 | vs Raptors | W 130-120 | -1.5 | Cover |
| 2026-02-01 | at Spurs | L 103-112 | +5.5 | No cover |
| 2026-02-03 | at Thunder | L 92-128 | +9.5 | No cover |
| 2026-02-05 | vs Nets | W 118-98 | -9.5 | Cover |
| 2026-02-07 | vs Jazz | W 120-117 | -8.5 | No cover |
| 2026-02-19 | at Kings | W 131-94 | -8.5 | Cover |
| 2026-02-21 | at Suns | L 110-113 | +2.5 | No cover |
| 2026-02-22 | at Clippers | W 111-109 | +2.5 | Cover |
| 2026-02-24 | at Lakers | W 110-109 | +5.5 | Cover |
| 2026-02-26 | vs Rockets | L 108-113 | +2.5 | No cover |
| 2026-03-01 | vs Pistons | L 92-106 | +5.5 | No cover |
| 2026-03-03 | vs Wizards | W 126-109 | -15.5 | Cover |
| 2026-03-05 | vs Mavericks | W 115-114 | -8.5 | No cover |
| 2026-03-07 | at Timberwolves | W 119-92 | +6.5 | Cover |
| 2026-03-08 | at Bucks | W 130-91 | -6.5 | Cover |
| 2026-03-11 | vs Cavaliers | W 128-122 | +3.5 | Cover |
| 2026-03-12 | vs Wizards | W 136-131 | -14.5 | No cover |
| 2026-03-14 | at Heat | W 121-117 | +4.5 | Cover |
| 2026-03-16 | at Hawks | L 112-124 | +3.5 | No cover |
| 2026-03-17 | vs Thunder | L 108-113 | +9.5 | Cover |
| 2026-03-19 | at Hornets | L 111-130 | +5.5 | No cover |
| 2026-03-21 | vs Lakers | L 104-105 | +2.5 | Cover |
| 2026-03-23 | vs Pacers | L 126-128 | -12.5 | No cover |
| 2026-03-24 | at Cavaliers | L 131-136 | +10.5 | Cover |
| 2026-03-26 | vs Kings | W 121-117 | -15.5 | No cover |
| 2026-03-29 | at Raptors | L 87-139 | +2.5 | No cover |
| 2026-04-06 | vs Pistons | W 123-107 | +3.5 | Cover |
Betting Read
Without Franz, the Magic have not been reliable when the market asks them to win by margin. The stronger angle has been Orlando as an underdog, where they’ve been slightly profitable ATS, while Magic favorite spreads have been a clear fade profile at 7-12 ATS.