Who is most likely to hit a homerun today?
My top pick to homer today: Kyle Schwarber (Phillies).
Lineups are still unconfirmed, and I don’t see a stored HR-prop market for today’s slate, so this is based on current season power, recent form, matchup/park context, and team power.
| Rank | Player | Team | Today’s matchup | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Schwarber | PHI | at Padres | MLB leader with 20 HR; has 6 HR in his last 10 games and a .775 SLG over that span. Even with a tougher road park, he’s the hottest elite HR profile. |
| 2 | Byron Buxton | MIN | at White Sox | 16 HR in 44 games; 5 HR in last 10 with a 1.125 OPS. Faces a White Sox staff with a listed lefty starter option, which fits Buxton’s power profile well. |
| 3 | Munetaka Murakami | CWS | vs Twins | 17 HR on the year; White Sox are 3rd in MLB in team HR. If he sees Simeon Woods Richardson, that’s a favorable power matchup based on the listed 7.53 ERA / 6.42 FIP. |
| 4 | Yordan Alvarez | HOU | at Rangers | 15 HR, elite season line: .300/.415/.595, 1.010 OPS. Strong individual power, though recent HR pace is a bit behind Schwarber/Buxton. |
| 5 | Aaron Judge / Ben Rice | NYY | at Royals | Yankees lead MLB with 75 team HR. Judge has 17 HR, Rice 16 HR, but the matchup vs Michael Wacha looks less homer-friendly than the top names. |
Best single answer: Kyle Schwarber.
If you want a slightly more matchup-driven alternative instead of pure HR form, I’d look at Byron Buxton or Munetaka Murakami.